Clay County Market Update By Roger Arrowsmith, President, East-West Partners

Throughout its long and colorful history, Clay County often has been viewed as Jacksonville’s slow, sleepy cousin. But take a closer look and you’ll find that perception is actually a misperception.

Clay County is anything but sleepy or slow. In the last 50 years, Clay County experienced a tenfold growth in population from 14,323 to 140,814 in 2000. Today, the Clay County Planning Department estimates the population at just over 176,000. The sustained growth can be attributed to several factors: a highly rated school system, its family-oriented character, natural beauty and recreational outlets, and affordable, quality housing.

One of the biggest draws to the county is its schools, which are ranked in the top 14 percent in the nation. Area high school students consistently outperform average state scores for the SAT and ACT, two standardized tests for college-bound students. With the largest segment of residents between the ages of 25 and 45, it’s clear young families with school-age children are stimulating the county’s growth.

Perhaps the best example of this growth is the Fleming Island area. Construction of Thunderbolt Elementary and Fleming Island High School was fueled by the development of Eagle Harbor and Fleming Island Plantation. Commercial growth along the US 17 and CR 220 corridor is steady with the opening of Kohl’s department store this fall and potential hotel and movie theaters in the future. Fleming Island Plantation’s Village Square is also seeing interest from small businesses and restaurants.

Other enticements to Fleming Island include its recreational treasures. With three semi-private 18-hole golf courses nearby, golfers can choose from Eagle Harbor, Fleming Island Plantation and Magnolia Point to test their skills. The area also offers easy access to the St. Johns River, Black Creek and Doctors Lake for sports fishermen and water sports enthusiasts. Other nearby recreational outlets include the incomparable soccer complex at Eagle Harbor, Thunderbolt Park and the Black Creek Trail.

Growth is likely to continue south along US 17. The LandMar Group is currently planning a golf course community called Saratoga Springs in the area between Fleming Island and Green Cove Springs. Additionally, East-West Partners, developer of acclaimed Eagle Harbor, has plans in the works for Rolling Hills, a 550-acre community near Lake Asbury. The development will offer approximately 700 homes on lots of varying sizes with strong emphasis on the bordering creek and natural areas. Of course, Rolling Hills will feature the signature amenities that East-West communities are renowned for, including a large pool complex.

Cecil Commerce Center, a 17,000-acre global business park located on the former Cecil Field Naval Air Station, offers attractive business and recreational opportunities. With easy access to air, rail, water and roadways, the center is an appealing site for new business and industry in North Florida. The recent recommendations by the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Commission bring the possibility of Cecil Field reopening as an active military base. That scenario will likely spur housing growth and provide an economic boost to Clay and Duval Counties.

Raymond Rodriguez, a local real estate analyst, also sees future industrial growth in this area of Clay, rather than commercial offices, due to the county’s infrastructure. US 17, railways and a deep river are attractive features industrial-based companies consider during a site selection process. With a new bridge connecting Clay and St. Johns counties in the planning stages, the southern portion of Clay will look even more attractive to industries.

In the northeast section of Clay County, residential growth is exploding due to the Branan Field-Chaffee Road corridor. This area is experiencing the highest rate of growth in the county. In 2003, 43.5 percent of all permits issued for single-family homes were for this section of the county alone. The pace continued in 2004, with 2,687 permits issued and 2,169 year-to-date in 2005. Oakleaf Plantation, a 6,400-acre master-planned community that straddles the Clay/Duval County line, is having the greatest impact on growth. This mixed-use development from The Hutson Company will include, upon completion, five schools, two retail village centers and 5.8 million square feet of commercial, office and industrial space and more than 9,000 homes. Located next to the 23,995-acre Jennings State Forest, Oakleaf Plantation also offers numerable first-class amenities, including a 30-acre athletic center, 6,000 square foot clubhouse, soccer and baseball fields, tennis and basketball courts, water park with a sprayground, junior Olympic-size lap pool and slide tower and many others.

East-West Partners is building Eagle Landing at Oakleaf Plantation. The 1,400-acre golf course community will have homes from the $200s to $1 million and diverse amenities including full-time recreational staff; pool complex; athletic club with 12 tennis courts, fitness center and full-size gymnasium; miniature golf; kids’ club; nature outpost; amphitheater with movie screen; and biking and hiking trails.

With room to grow, other smaller subdivisions, with up to a couple of hundred homes each, are expected to develop in the Branan-Chaffee sector as well.

Due to its rapid population growth, Clay County is also being eyed as a location for expansion by three Jacksonville hospitals. Baptist Health, Orange Park Medical Center and St. Vincent’s Medical Center all recently announced their intentions to build a new in-patient hospital in Clay County. Plans indicate a new hospital could have about 100 beds and employ around 300 people. However, it could take up to three years before any ground is broken due to the state’s review process and the likelihood of the three hospitals challenging each other for the right to expand in the area.

But with growth comes challenges and in Clay County that challenge is roadways. Recently, there’s been much buzz about an outer beltway connecting Clay County to St. Johns County. Running from I-10 to Branan-Chaffee through Clay County, across Black Creek and east across the river to St. John’s County and I-95, this proposed roadway will be a critical factor in the future growth of Clay County.

Long-term growth projections for Clay County are more difficult to predict. The possibility of interest rates continuing to rise, availability of skilled labor and a likely shortage of materials due to Hurricane Katrina will all have significant impacts on Clay County’s long-term growth.